2013年8月27日 星期二

大埔? 後龍? 傻傻分不清楚?

Disclaimer: 首先,為了避免被說是可以下去領五百的黨工,我對於大埔四戶的強制劃入區段徵收、拆除,和其園區規劃本身的公益性等等「今天拆大埔,明天拆政府」主張者對劉政鴻-馬英九-國民黨政府之各種指控和正義之要求,並無透過本文行批判或反對之意。

  這幾天有個圖文在fb很紅:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=722757074408260&set=a.180075215343118.49317.100000219238115&type=1&theater

這個圖和他的簡單說明,被拿來和被徵收強拆的大埔4+n戶相對比,充分顯示出苗栗王其實已經稱帝的事實(誤)。
基本上要表達的是:
1. 一樣是土地重劃徵收,大埔/還有這個圖裡的其他綠色地方,都被強制徵收了,只有縣長府可以免徵收,原地保留,特權無誤。
2. 除了房子免拆之外,旁邊縣長家族,被納入區段徵收的土地,也在重劃抽籤換地時,像中樂透一樣神奇的抽到原來的土地,特權無誤again。
3. 因為免徵收+徵收後換回完整街廓,使得劉縣長和他的快樂家族,土地增值再增值,爽賺兩億,特權無誤againgain。
http://n.yam.com/hakkatv/life/20130807/20130807668078.html
上面這個是上星期的新聞,對縣長的特權排除徵收有比較細的文字說明,可配合原圖食用。

我本來也覺得,這真是土霸王,怎麼明明都在同個重劃區裡,人家就被拆哭哭,縣長大人就紋風不動爽歪歪。但今早在學長的臉書看到討論,有人提起這根本不是竹南科學園區的地形,而是完全不同地方的苗栗高鐵特區,並質疑原發文者在魚目混珠,基於追根究柢(愛管閒事)的精神,我把原規劃書下載,想說來證明一下土霸王是如何無視專業都市規劃,非法特權強度關山的。


urbanplanning.miaoli.gov.tw/HSR/pdf/pdf2.pdf‎ <- br="">
這個是:擬定高速鐵路苗栗車站特定區(第一期發展地區) 細部計畫書

根據我完全外行的閱讀圖文之後,大概得到幾點釋疑: (雖然後面大概會有更多疑~)
0. 這個特定區的位址在後龍,跟大埔的科學園區是完全不同也沒有地緣關係的。
1. 原來的規劃書,就有建議將原建物密集社區排除區段徵收的辦法了。在(6-1)這裡標了兩個區域,其中一個應該就是縣長府周邊的房舍。
2. 在同一頁,被圈入區段徵收的原有合法社區/建築/聚落等等,在不妨礙都市計畫與區段徵收計畫原則下(應該是指重劃後還是住宅區),得由區段主管機關於辦理區段徵收時按原位置分配。所以這樣,應該就是不用抽籤,在徵收地被政府要走之後,換回的地可以直接在原來的地方(我認為也應該這樣才合理)。以上兩點的排除規定,都有限制最小土地面積,所以大埔四戶的畸零地大小是不適用的。
3. 計畫區在區段徵收前,大部分的地方本來也是田 (3-10)。區段徵收後,田地全部換成建地 我不認為這些地不應該不抽籤,或是應該跟原來就有住宅的地同等視之。畢竟原先的開發情形和土地區分/價值就不一樣了。(下圖,綠色的是田,黃色是原有建物)
所以,原來這個圖的問題是:
1. 只貼圖,不說明地理位址,造成好像劉政鴻家也在大埔的假象。
下面這個是大埔基地,和後龍是完全不一樣的地方,也不是同一個區段徵收案。

2. 把整個計畫區不細究原先開發情形的不同,把原有的房屋和農地混淆,造成劉政鴻家比農田得到優待的假象。 (建地->建地 vs 農田->建地 本來就不該等價看待,增值的倍數差很多)
下面是重劃後的土地使用計畫,可以看到很多原來是農地的都變成住/商用地。

3. 無視或不探究原計畫中,並不是所有區段徵收的換回地都是用抽的,原先就有建物的是可能原址換回的。原址換回的話,當然就免拆了,不然難道還把房子拆了重蓋一棟嗎?

當然這並不表示劉霸王就清白解套了,產生新的疑問是:
1. 原計畫書已經建議要排除的原有聚落(已開發區),是否最後只有劉政鴻家被排除,還是其實也有其他建物也被排除?
2. 若其他原有建物也被納入區段徵收,是否也有原址發還?還是只有劉家可以原址發換?
記者,或是想要證明土皇帝霸業的團體,應該要想法去查明這個才是,而不是貼個地圖,把一小塊塗成紅色,它就會自動變成皇居了。
至於那種以訪問鄰居說法 還有科長隨便亂答,就當作"行政依據"的新聞寫法,根本沒甚麼價值釋疑。到底有哪些地是被區段徵收,原址發還的,地政單位一定都有白紙黑字的公開資料可以查。後龍居民魏先生的說法根本無法作為特權不公的證詞,只是凸顯記者沒做功課亂抓路人而已,好歹也把公開資料看一看吧。

幾百年沒寫部落格,一寫就是這種護航文,我真的沒有收山西布政的五千兩啊........Orz

2011年3月25日 星期五

2011 Baseball Prospect List-- Boston Red Sox

Name

Pos

Age

Significant AU

Significant RC

Ebay Search

Milb Stats

Key Atttibute

Jose Iglesias

SS

21

2010 BC1

2010 BC1

http://0rz.com/MO8sVQ

http://0rz.com/MFCAZ4

Contact

Anthony Ranaudo

RHP

21

2010 Elite

 

http://0rz.com/1ivLtl

http://0rz.com/5gxeUD

Hype

Drake Britton

LHP

21

2011 BC1

2011 BC1

http://0rz.com/VUrdz3

http://0rz.com/xHUFf8

Dominate

Yamaico Navarro

3B

23

 

2008 BC

http://0rz.com/CVMb4x

http://0rz.com/9HOQYV

Eye

Brandon Workman

RHP

22

2010 Elite

2010 Elite

http://0rz.com/VxzBUq

http://0rz.com/xzqUxf

 

Chris Balcom-Miller

OF

22

2010 Elite

2010 ProDebut2

http://0rz.com/FuyO55

http://0rz.com/JZtSWy

KKK

Garin Cecchini

3B

19

2009 UD USA

2010 BC1 USA

http://0rz.com/je9YE1

http://0rz.com/lOujHx

 

Josh Reddick

OF

24

2008 BC

2009 BDP

http://0rz.com/pGsPI7

http://0rz.com/2vy1xi

Power

Kolbrin Vitek

3B

22

2010 BDP

2010 BDP

http://0rz.com/AtNgSU

http://0rz.com/RYs11X

Speed

Oscar Tejeda

2B

21

 

2009 BC1

http://0rz.com/RVs2cm

http://0rz.com/WnQoK0

Contact

Ryan Lavarnway

C

23

2010 Sterling

2010 ProDebut2

http://0rz.com/i7AnuM

http://0rz.com/ALIfrB

Power

Stolmy Pimentel

RHP

21

2008 Threads

2009 BC1

http://0rz.com/gtpmJM

http://0rz.com/50I9uV

Dominate

Felix Doubront

LHP

23

2010 BC1

2010 BDP

http://0rz.com/06I4GP

http://0rz.com/NaXD3E

RP

Will Middlebrooks

3B

22

2007 Elite

2010 BC

http://0rz.com/mPEYSb

http://0rz.com/ELsMiv

Contact




















1. Jose Iglesias: The next "thing" in the Boston lineup, Iglesias is going to be in the major sometime this year. Although whether he will succeed is yet to be seem, the obstacle ahead of him shouldn't be hard to overcome. As Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro both seem to only be temporary solution for the post. Iglesias' key card is the 2010 Bowman Chrome Auto, which is already on the rise since spring training. However, given the uniform he's going to be waring, there's still plenty of potential to climb. All the boost it might need is the rumor of call up and a week in the Boston starting line up, which is more than likely to happen sometime before all star break. The card should rise, albeit a 50% spike for two weeks or a 500% climb all through the end of the season is still unknown. Adding by the fact that the chrome auto is the only autograph there is, it is a very nice and mostly safe investment at this time. (short term: A, long term: B, spike rate: A)

2. Anthony Ranaudo: Being a colleage first round pick means the outcome of any Ranaudo investment should come fast and hard, whether at either direction. Has yet to pitch in the pros, looks like to start the season in extended ST or short A-ball, which will dip his price either way for being out of spot light. Having only Elite and ITG issue is no help either, because neither will maintain their current price should he struggles or if the Chrome issue comes along. Having almost no chance to go upward, and the fact that the current issue isn't ideal long term possession, I wouldn't try to buy or keep any of them at this time. (short term: C-, long term: C+, spike rate: D)

3. Drake Britton: In A ball last year, Britton is the same age as Ranaudo and seems to be ranked right behind him as the best pitching prospect in the system. Currently, Britton only has TriStar and AFLAC stuff, and his BC auto will be out in May. When they does, he's performance in the first two month will set the price for the card and should be stable all through the season baring injury. BA predicts he's ETA in 2013, meaning any possession you might have of him is unlikely to cash for a while. If you like what you see in him this season, the time to buy should be in Dec, not May, although holding what you already have is also a fine idea as the market should be dry soon after the initial release. (short term: C, long term: C+, spike rate: C)

4. Yamaico Navarro: Only a C+ prospect in Sickels' ranking, Navarro is in here only because he somehow crack the PP top 100 list at No. 95. He's already proof he can handle AAA playing doing a little bit of everything, although he's brief AB in Boston last season is nothing to write home about. Navarro's postion in the bigs is already occupied by Youkilis, so he's chance to be in the Boston starting line up is very gloom. Unless Youkilis goes on the DL this season, Yamaico's card should be in the common slot for the duration of the season. (short: C, long term: C-, spike rate: C+)

5. Brandon Workman: Being Boston's second round pick last year, Workman is another colleage prospect just like Ranaudo whom also has yet to make his professional debut. He should start the season wherever Ranaudo does and his teammate all year. Although concesus seems to think Ranaudo is much better a prospect, in my book, they're both the same until we can see some professional stats. Having only Elite auto and being pretty much dirt cheap (blue aspiration #/100 only sold for $7), he's a much better buy for the cost is drastically lower for only a slight lower chance of success. (short term: B-, long term: B-, spike rate: C)

6. Chris Balcom-Miller: (short term: B, long term: B-, spike rate: B)

7. Garin Cecchini: (short term: C, long term: C-, spike rate: C)

8. Josh Reddick: (short term: C+, long term: C, spike rate: B+)

9. Kolbrin Vitek: (short term: B-, long term: C+, spike rate: C)

10. Oscar Tejeda: (short term: B-, long term: C+, spike rate: C+)

11. Ryan Lavarnway: (short term: B, long term: B, spike rate: B)

12. Stomy Pimentel: (short term: C, long term: C-, spike rate: C+)

13. Felix Doubront: (short term: B-, long term: B-, spike rate: B-)

14. Wil Middlebrooks: (short term: C-, long term: C, spike rate: C+)

2011年3月20日 星期日

2011 Baseball Prospect List-- Arizona Diamond Backs

Name

Pos

Age

Significant AU

Significant RC

Ebay Search

Milb Stats

Key Atttibute

Jarrod Parker

RHP

22

2008 BC1

2007 BDP

http://0rz.com/jZ2jAX

http://0rz.com/Q0LyLL

Dominate

Tyler Skaggs

LHP

19

2009 Elite

2010 ProDebut1

http://0rz.com/foBQGi

http://0rz.com/B44lEZ

Dominate

Matt Davidson

3B

20

2010 BC

2009 BDP

http://0rz.com/cygbh5

http://0rz.com/03GXhO

Power

Bobby Borchering

3B

20

2009 BDP

2009 Elite

http://0rz.com/tamTh1

http://0rz.com/a9nZoi

Power

Chris Owings

SS

19

2010 Platinum

2009 Elite

http://0rz.com/R0MVF2

 

Contact

Marc Krauss

OF

23

2010 BC

2010 BC

http://0rz.com/fbq7DS

http://0rz.com/rFc094

Power

A.J. Pollock

OF

23

2009 BDP

2009 Elite

http://0rz.com/t0m1HV

http://0rz.com/a66lSy

Contact

Charlie Brewer

RHP

22

2011 BC1

 

http://0rz.com/X9ivys

http://0rz.com/ofGNHM

Dominate

Pat Corbin

LHP

21

2010 Platinum

2010 ProDebut2

http://0rz.com/PS2U3Z

http://0rz.com/FOezSS

Dominate

Paul Goldschmidt

1B

23

2011 BC1

2011 BC1

http://0rz.com/2tLuho

http://0rz.com/Sqwc2H

Power

Wade Miley

LHP

24

2008 Razor

2010 ProDebut1

http://0rz.com/kdr4bM

http://0rz.com/5uvDhs

Dominate


1. Jarrod Parker: Already have plenty of prospect cards to invest in including both EEE, and BC. Injuries plagued his career causing his stock to fall, but coming back from Tommy John and being on all of my lists' Top 50 means he's gonna have some hype to start the season. His stuff has already seem some rises since start of ST. Seeing he's already 22 and in AA, it is possible for him to be called up if he starts the season hot, if so, his card will definitely see some nice spike. His health history and BB/9 makes me doubt his long term ROI, but his 2008 BC AU should be a nice buy at $20. Sell if he's called up during the season, and don't look back. (short term: B+, long term: C, spike rate: B)

2. Tyler Skaggs: Skaggs is only 19 years old and in A during 2010, meaning he probably won't be in the major until a year or two. However, being stuck in A+ and AA don't necessarily mean bad news for his card value. Seeing he's more likely to have dominating stats all season instead of being called up and bombed in the major, is actually great upside. Having only one 2009 EEE AU means this card is a good investment card to begin with. There's not many in the market but it has seem some rise lately seeing he's listed between 70~90 in all prospect lists. Many would probably consider him a sleeper for this year and indeed he's got potential to triple in value during season. (short term: B+, long term: B, spike rate: C)

3. Matt Davidson: Many already know his name and still remember him from his 2010 BC AU, meaning his performance and value should be watched plenty this year. This is in no way a good sign because if you haven't already got him, chances are it's too late to acquire him at market value now. He's good power as upside which is great, but his K rate and struggle in A+ ending last season is pretty alarming. Davidson also has a 2009 Elite AU to note. I think it's dangerous to invest in the current price range and abundance, but holding on for two or three more years to see if he pans out might be okay, seeing Arizona lineup is filled with slugger with K issues, Davidson should be a fine fit. (short term: C, long term: B, spike rate: B-)

4. Bobby Borchering: Borchering is plenty like Davidson but with bigger problems, the age is similar but Borchering got more Ks and lower Avg and HR. Bochering has more defensive value as a 3B but this is not worth as much in the card world. With BC, Elite, and Sterling AU, there's plenty of cards to go around, making it harder to hold value if he struggles. (short term: C-, long term: C+, spike rate: C)

5. Chris Owings: Being a SS, Owings' offensive skill is judged lighter than others, and he's got good contact and gap power. Being 19 and in A, he's done pretty well, but lack of pop means even if he winds up as MLB starter, it would take some time before he gets recognized, if at all. Having both 2010 Platinum and 2009 Elite AU is not very useful, because if Owings fails, these will be worthless, and if he succeeds, a BC AU will dent both in value. (short term: C-, long term: C-, spike rate: D)

6. Marc Krauss: (short term: B, long term: B-, spike rate: B)
7. A.J. Pollock: (short term: C-, long term: C+, spike rate: C)
8. Charles Brewer: (short term: B, long term: B-, spike rate: B-)
9. Pat Corbin: (short term: B, long term: B-, spike rate: B-)
10. Paul Goldschmidt: (short term: C+, long term: C+, spike rate: B+)
11. Wade Miley: (short term: B-, long term: C, spike rate: B)